Simulator
Change the statewide vote
Statewide first preferences
Where preferences go
Move one seat’s primary vote
Controls
Primary vote
Instant-runoff count
Recounted with this seat’s preference flows from the model, including any flow changes made above.
Likely winner by district click a seat to see it below
Victoria
Melbourne
Seats
Data
Votes and the places that cast them
Vote against census
Preference flows
Seats
All seats
Polls
Polling and the statewide vote
First-preference polls
The model’s poll average
All polls
Methodology
How the forecast is built
A. Follow one seat through the model
B. Track record
Backtests and checks
C. The pipeline, and what it cannot tell you
Limitations
Model notes
What changed, and when
About